(Reuters) – Goldman Sachs investment strategists said on Wednesday that they now expect the S&P 500 to end 2024 at 4700, implying a roughly 6% gain including dividends.

The estimate, from a research note led by chief equity strategist David Kostin, is based on modest economic expansion, an increase in earnings of 5% and a valuation multiple of 18.

The target assumes a roughly flat market during the first half of the year with returns concentrated in the second half, after the Federal Reserve starts cutting interest rates and the U.S. election overhang ends.